How to use this primer
This primer turns the firm's pre-primary memo into a living briefing document. It is built to help you brief a C-suite audience quickly and credibly — the narrative gives you the story of each race, the registration profiles give you the district's political fundamentals, and every card links out to live, sourced data you can pull up in the room.
Click any race or district card to expand it. Inside each you'll find: a plain-language overview, the current candidate field with the fundraising figures the firm has on file, the district's voter-registration profile, and a row of links.
The fundraising figures are live — pulled from the Arizona Secretary of State's "See The Money" filings (as of July 12, 2026) — and each race links to the candidates' full public reports. The ad links open each candidate's actual ads — in Google's Political Ads Transparency library (which includes their YouTube ads) and, where they run them, the Meta Ad Library (Facebook/Instagram); where a candidate isn't running tracked digital ads, that's noted. Every link opens a public source — no firm login required, so you can forward this to anyone. Use the search and filter controls in the district section to narrow to the races your client cares about.
The big picture: what to tell the C-suite
Arizona remains one of the nation's tightest battlegrounds, and control of state policy on taxes, regulation, water, energy, and elections runs through a Legislature decided by a handful of seats. Three storylines define the 2026 primaries.
1. A Democratic ideological civil war
In several safe-Democratic seats, progressive challengers backed by the "No Safe Seats" coalition are targeting moderate incumbents seen as too willing to cut deals with Republicans — most visibly the Hernandez sisters (Alma in LD20, Consuelo in LD21) and Lydia Hernandez in LD24. For business, the stakes are direct: the moderate, deal-making Democrats are often the ones who help move pragmatic legislation.
2. Establishment vs. insurgent on the Republican side
Across GOP districts, Turning Point Action and Freedom Club–backed insurgents are challenging Chamber-endorsed establishment Republicans (LD3, LD10, LD17, LD27). The outcomes determine whether the Republican majority governs as a pragmatic or a movement caucus.
3. Slates, and a thin majority
Coordinated two- and three-candidate slates are shaping House races in both parties (LD8, LD10, LD14, LD21). With the Legislature narrowly divided, a shift of one or two seats — or the loss of moderate deal-makers in either party — changes what can pass.
Statewide races
Legislative districts to watch
Public data sources behind this primer
Everything in this briefing links to public, no-login sources, so it can be shared with anyone. Open these directly for the current numbers and the actual ads: